Trump's Election Odds Take a Sharp Dip

Recent polls reveal shifting dynamics in the 2024 race

by Zain ul Abedin
Trump's Election Odds Take a Sharp Dip
© Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump has concerns about the upcoming 2024 Presidential election, as evidenced by the economic model from The Economist. With the elections slated for November, Trump, who is seen as the representative of Republicans, is up against a very tight contest with Biden, who is the incumbent President of the United States of America, having been elected in 2020.

The earlier polls and even predictive models indicated that it was going to be a close fight between the two candidates, with each leading the other in some polls. However, the dynamic changed drastically this Wednesday. Only a day before, The Economist’s daily prediction gave Trump a 75% probability of regaining the presidency, suggesting that he would get 306 votes in the Electoral College against Biden’s 232.

But the latest figures paint a different picture: The probability of Trump’s win is currently at 66%, a reduction from previous polling, and Trump’s predicted Electoral College votes are now at 300, down from previous projections, whereas Biden’s chance of winning has risen to 33% and Clinton gained six electoral votes.

This shift is especially remarkable given the setup of the U. S. Electoral College system requiring 270 votes and an essential win with the national popular vote provision. Other polling data also supports this. The latest poll by Echelon Insights shows 1,013 voters tilt toward Biden, with 48% supporting the current president and 47% for the former.

Poll Volatility Insight

Making the electoral projection ever more complicated, an estimate by the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight last Sunday had put Trump as a slight favorite; he won 51 out of 100 computer-simulated elections, only two more than Biden.

This serves to bring out the volatility associated with the prediction of an election whereby it may be well predicted now only for it to be easily shifted by a raw of polls or changes on the political scene. However, these polling trends signify more than mere engagement figures.

Christopher Phelps, a professor of modern American history at the University of Nottingham, made a lot out of stressing the need to go farther than culture and inclusion-exclusion strategies of the horse-race poll theory.

He argues that the media and the public debate should be devoting more attention to the policy visions that the candidates have so that people can fully understand the choices that they make. Being active participants in the political process, Biden and Trump are to meet in the first of two planned debates on June 27 in Atlanta to schedule the highly anticipated general election on November 5, which is set to be under significant amounts of pressure.

As the election landscape remains open over four months, the race indicates that it requires a constant, comprehensive examination of both campaign tactics and policy consequences.