Biden Sees Surge in Swing State Polls

Swing State Voters Eye Third-Party Options, Poll Finds

by Zain ul Abedin
Biden Sees Surge in Swing State Polls
© Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

In an unexpected twist in the political landscape, Nikki Haley's supporters in North Carolina might be the pivotal force President Joe Biden needs to secure victory in the state come November's presidential showdown. A recent survey reveals a fascinating shift: over half of North Carolina's electorate who backed Haley in the Republican primaries are now leaning towards Biden in a hypothetical face-off against former President Donald Trump.

This allegiance shifts slightly, with Biden's support dipping to 47% when third-party contenders enter the fray. Trump's triumph in the North Carolina Republican primary was pronounced, yet Haley's appeal was undeniable, garnering nearly 260,000 votes, translating to approximately 23% of the vote share.

Given Trump's narrow margin of victory in the state in 2020 - less than 75,000 votes - Haley's cohort could decisively tilt the balance in Biden's favor. North Carolina's allegiance to a Democratic presidential candidate last manifested in 2008 with Barack Obama's historic run.

Despite Trump's edge in addressing key issues like immigration, international conflicts, and economic stewardship - as voiced by over half of the survey's participants - Biden is perceived as the stronger candidate for preserving democracy.

This nuanced voter sentiment is reflected in the Quinnipiac University poll, which positions the race as razor-thin, marking the state as a battleground with unpredictable outcomes. Third-party candidates emerge as potential kingmakers in an election characterized by tepid enthusiasm for both major-party contenders.

North Carolina's Unpredictable Race

Tim Malloy of Quinnipiac underscores the volatile nature of North Carolina's electoral dynamics, highlighting the open-mindedness of nearly one in five voters towards third-party options.

This openness could introduce significant unpredictability in a tightly contested race. The survey, encompassing 1,401 self-identified registered voters and conducted between April 4-8, suggests a delicate balance. With Trump leading by a slender margin of 4.9 percentage points as per Race to the WH's aggregation, the race is anything but settled.

Biden's broader electoral strategy may not hinge solely on North Carolina, yet his consistent lead in national polls since late March hints at a resilient campaign. Nonetheless, with the presidency hanging in the balance across seven key swing states - Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin - each battleground presents its challenges and opportunities for both campaigns.

Biden's previous victories in six states offer a blueprint for success, yet only Pennsylvania currently shows him ahead, albeit by a mere 0.2%.