Exclusive polling data from Ottawa-based market research firm Abacus Data shared with the Toronto Star, paints a concerning picture for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada. Conducted from January 2nd to the 9th, the survey of 1,500 Canadians reveals a significant decline in support for the current federal government, with 58% of respondents expressing disapproval.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, commented on the findings, stating, "If the Liberals were hoping that 2024 would start with some positive mood and maybe a shift in public perception, I don't see any evidence of that yet." This sentiment reflects a continued trend of diminishing support for the Liberals.
The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has surged in popularity, holding an 8-point lead over the Liberals. According to the poll, 37% of respondents would choose the CPC if an election were held today, while only 29% would vote for the Liberals.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) captures 19% of the support. This decline in support represents the grimmest outlook for the Trudeau Liberals since they assumed power. However, this situation echoes a similar challenge faced by Trudeau approximately six months ago, at the end of August 2023.
Summer Polling Trends
During the summer months, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, gained traction, surpassing the Liberals in polling data from Nanos Research. In August, the Conservatives secured 33.1% of the vote, while the Liberals slumped to 29.7%, a narrow gap reported by CTV News based on Nanos Research data.
Jagmeet Singh's NDP also held a significant portion of the vote, with 21.7%, potentially enough to support another Liberal minority government if an election was held at the summer's end. Nik Nanos, Founder and Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research, explained that this trend had been evident since February 2023.
The Conservatives consistently held an advantage within the margin of error, signaling potential challenges ahead for the Liberals. The reasons behind the Conservative Party's summer surge were likely related to economic concerns, particularly housing costs and the overall cost of living.
Poilievre garnered support by promising to address these issues, including plans to create more housing, unload federal buildings, and incentivize cities.
Conservative Policy Impact
In August, Poilievre pledged to link federal infrastructure funds to completed homes, aiming to increase building permits by 15% annually or risk losing federal grants for cities that did not meet the target.
As of August 25th, an Abacus Data survey revealed the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 12 points, with 38% of the vote, while 57% of respondents believed Trudeau should step down. Recent polling data from Nanos Research as of January 9th indicates that the Conservative Party maintains an 8-point lead over the Liberals.
Weekly tracking data from 1,000 Canadians shows 38% support for the Conservatives, 29% for the Liberals, and 21% for the NDP. Concerns about inflation, jobs, and the economy are top priorities for Canadians, as reflected in these polling results.
Trudeau and the Liberal Party face significant challenges in regaining public support as they navigate the evolving political landscape in Canada.