In a pivotal prelude to the 2024 presidential race, a recent JL Partners poll commissioned by DailyMail.com revealed significant voter sentiment shifts across three key battleground states. The poll surveyed 550 likely voters in each state and indicates that former President Donald Trump holds a lead over President Joe Biden in Arizona and Georgia.
At the same time, Biden maintains a narrow edge in Wisconsin. These findings are especially notable considering these states' critical roles in the 2020 election, where they each flipped from Trump to Biden in 2016. Trump's lead is marked by a five-point advantage in Arizona and a three-point lead in Georgia.
This development signals potential challenges for Biden, who must now work to consolidate his base in these states. Trump's gains among Hispanic voters in Arizona and independents in Georgia are particularly striking, reflecting a possible shift in voter demographics that historically leaned Democratic.
Conversely, Biden's stronghold in Wisconsin, where he leads by five percentage points, offers a glimmer of hope for his campaign.
Trump's Diverse Appeal
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, points to Trump's solid base and growing appeal among independents as contributing to his early lead.
However, he notes that while Trump is making inroads with Hispanic and Black voters, Biden still enjoys strong support from women, graduates, and Black voters. The poll's methodology included a mix of landlines, text messages, and app-based queries to gauge voter preferences.
In Georgia, 39% of respondents favored Trump over Biden's 34%, a lead largely fueled by independent voters. Similarly, in Arizona, Trump garnered 39% support against Biden's 36%. Notably, Trump's support among Black voters in these states exceeds national averages, highlighting a potential shift in voter allegiance.
Wisconsin's Contrasting Trends
Wisconsin presents a different scenario. Biden leads Trump by 37% to 32%, buoyed by college-educated voters and minorities. The presence of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the race, capturing six points, further complicated the electoral landscape.
Despite these trends, the poll suggests Trump's continued political resilience. Voters in Arizona and Georgia perceive him as more presidential and aligned with their priorities than Biden. However, in Wisconsin, Biden is seen as the more presidential figure.
The poll's findings, which carry a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points, underscore the dynamic and uncertain nature of the upcoming election. Johnson emphasizes the long road ahead, highlighting both warning signs for Biden and potential challenges for Trump, including the impact of independent candidates like RFK Jr.
and the potential for increased Democratic turnout motivated by opposition to Trump. In summary, this poll paints a complex picture of the 2024 electoral landscape, with Trump gaining ground in key states but facing potential hurdles, and Biden needing to reinforce his base while contending with changing voter dynamics.