In a speculative forecast for the upcoming 2024 presidential election, ex-President Donald Trump appears to edge out potential Democratic contender Governor Gavin Newsom of California, according to recent projections by Stack Data Strategy.
This conjecture emerges amidst discussions of Newsom as a prospective candidate should President Joe Biden opt not to seek reelection. Governor Newsom, while not officially in the presidential race, has been suggested as a viable replacement for Biden by some political analysts.
The current president, Biden, has been scrutinized for his rapport with pivotal demographics, such as the youth, in swing states essential for a Democratic victory. Despite the legal controversies surrounding him, Trump has been shown to hold a moderate advantage in key battleground states, suggesting a competitive edge in a theoretical ballot box battle.
Trump's Projected Comeback
Polling data indicates Trump would regain ground lost in the 2020 election, potentially reversing Democratic wins in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Such a shift would result in a projected electoral triumph of 292 to 246.
Meanwhile, Governor Newsom, despite his rising national profile and strategic political maneuvers — including a proposed debate with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis — may not fare as well in these swing states, per Stack Data Strategy's analysis.
The projection also suggests that Newsom could lose additional states like Maine, Michigan, Nevada, and New Hampshire — territories that Biden previously secured. Newsweek's inquiry for comments from the political camps of Newsom and Trump received responses via email.
While the analysis casts doubt on Newsom's electoral prospects, it is important to note that his candidacy remains hypothetical. His efforts to enhance his political stature have been noted, with debates and public appearances hinting at his broader ambitions.
However, Newsom's run is contingent on Biden's final decision for the 2024 campaign, which is still uncertain. Notably, the data also posits Vice President Kamala Harris as a more robust contender than Newsom, maintaining a lead in states like Maine and Nevada, although she would ultimately fall short against Trump in both the Electoral College and popular vote metrics.
Stack Data Strategy's findings are based on a sophisticated Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model and draw from a substantial sample of 15,205 interviews with registered U.S. voters conducted from mid-October to early November.
These findings inject a new dimension into the dialogue surrounding the Democrats' strategy for the upcoming election, framing the conversation within the context of potential versus proven political clout. As the race to the White House heats up, these projections offer a glimpse into the strategic calculations that will shape the battle for America’s future leadership.